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The EUR/USD exchange rate has dropped sharply to around 1.06 following Donald Trump's election victory, raising discussions of a potential return to parity. Factors contributing to the dollar's strength include anticipated economic policies and increased market confidence, while the euro faces weakness due to a declining Eurozone economy and low German economic sentiment. Technical analysis suggests further declines could target 1.0480 if support at 1.06 is breached.
Asian markets are facing uncertainty due to potential tariffs from the U.S. and China's cautious fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing its economy. The Hang Seng Index is testing a critical support level, while the Nikkei 225 shows resilience amid an ascending wedge formation. Meanwhile, the Singapore Blue Chip Index is on an upward trend, bolstered by a strong banking sector and positive earnings.
Asian markets are starting the week cautiously amid uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff plans, which could impact export-driven economies. China's fiscal response is expected to focus on stabilizing growth rather than aggressive stimulus, while the Hang Seng Index faces potential selling pressures below 20,000. The Nikkei 225 shows resilience with an ascending wedge formation, and the Singapore Blue Chip Index is eyeing its November 2021 high, supported by a strong banking sector.
US stocks soared to record highs following Donald Trump's election victory and a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with the Nasdaq 100 rising 5.41% and the S&P 500 climbing 4.66%. The market anticipates a Republican 'red sweep' to facilitate Trump's trade and tax policies, while China's modest stimulus measures aim to counteract potential tariffs. Key economic indicators, including the October CPI report, are set for release this week, with expectations of a slight rise in headline inflation.
US inflation is expected to remain stagnant in October, indicating a challenging final stretch toward the Federal Reserve's target. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to show no change in both monthly and annual rates compared to September.
The broader indices faced a decline, with the BSE Smallcap index dropping over 1% in the week ending November 8, amid volatility driven by weak Q2 earnings and persistent FII selling. The BSE Sensex fell 0.29% to 79,486.32, while the Nifty50 decreased by 0.64% to 24,148.20. Despite this, 35 smallcap stocks delivered double-digit returns, contrasting with the overall market trend.
Major US banks are experiencing a mix of cautious optimism and jubilation as they anticipate potential relief from stringent regulations imposed during the Biden administration. The industry has united against tougher capital rules, notably the Basel III Endgame, and has invested heavily in lobbying efforts, resulting in the Federal Reserve's decision to propose a more lenient version.
Following Donald Trump's presidential election victory, demand for US corporate bonds surged, leading to a significant drop in risk premiums. Average investment-grade bond spreads narrowed to 75 basis points, the tightest level since May 1998, as investors responded to the stock market rally and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.
Economists and strategists on Wall Street have reduced their expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2025 following Donald Trump's presidential election and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed recently lowered its target for the overnight lending rate to 4.5%-4.75% and is anticipated to make another cut at the December 18 meeting. However, several banks have abandoned their previous forecasts for continued cuts in early 2025.
US stocks surged following Donald Trump's election victory, though concerns about potential inflation from his policies loom. Meanwhile, German opposition leader Friedrich Merz has called for snap elections as early as January after the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s government, and Trump's win is expected to negatively impact climate action at the upcoming UN COP29 summit.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston N.A.
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